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醫(yī)學論文范文:香港與北京市嚴重急性呼吸道綜合征綜合流行因素
【摘要】 目的：評價香港與北京市嚴重急性呼吸道綜合征(SARS流行相關綜合因素。方法：采用因子分析方法對香港與北京市SARS流行的相關因素進行提取公因子，再對這些復合變量進行構筑式多元回歸與Logistic回歸分析。評估這些復合變量對香港及北京市SARS流行的影響。結果：香港SARS流行因素因子分析提取出3個公因子(措施時間因子、日發(fā)病數(shù)因子和院內(nèi)感染倍增因子;隨著日發(fā)病數(shù)因子的增加，香港特區(qū)暴發(fā)SARS的危險性約增大35.3倍。北京市SARS流行因素因子分析也提取出3個公因子(院內(nèi)感染倍增因子、措施時間因子和住_出院因子;隨著院內(nèi)感染倍增因子的增加，北京市暴發(fā)SARS的危險性增加39.4倍。結論：影響SARS流行的重要因素可能是干預措施與時間因素，造成SARS暴發(fā)流行的主要原因是SARS傳染源數(shù)量劇增。
【關鍵詞】 嚴重急性呼吸道綜合征;流行病學;因子分析
The Multiple Factors Involved in SARS Epidemic between Hong Kong and BeijingLIN Kun，ZHU Bi_liu
(Department of Public Health, Shantou University Medical College, Shantou 515041，China
[Abstract]Objective：To evaluate the multiple factors involved in SARS epidemic between Hong Kong and Beijing. Methods：A principal component analysis on the potential factors was used to search for principal components. Then, the analyses of multiphase regression and Logistic regression on these components were applied. Results： In Hong Kong, Measure_Time Factor，Daily Case Factor and Hospital Infection Factor involved in SARS epidemic were gained. The estimated risk of a larger SARS epidemic in Hong Kong was 35.3_fold higher with increase of Daily Case Factor. Hospital Infection Factor, Measure_Time Factor and Hospitalization_Discharge Factor involved in SARS epidemic in Beijing also were obtained. The estimated risk of a larger SARS epidemic in Beijing was 39.4_fold higher with increase of Hospital Infection Factor. Conclusion：Intervention measure and epidemic time may be the most important factors involved in SARS epidemic. The infection source of SARS increased sharply might result in a larger SARS epidemic醫(yī).學全.在.線網(wǎng)站m.quanxiangyun.cn.
[Key Words]severe acute respiratory syndrome，epidemiology，factor analysis
嚴重急性呼吸道綜合征(SARS2002_11首先在中國廣東暴發(fā)，2003_02傳入香港。2003_03_01北京發(fā)現(xiàn)第1例輸入性SARS病例，隨后蔓延到周邊國家和地區(qū)[1_2]。SARS的傳染性極強，病死率高，傳播速度快，對公眾健康構成嚴重威脅。因此，研究SARS流行的相關因素具有重要的醫(yī)學意義和社會價值。SARS暴發(fā)以來，研究其流行相關因素的論文很多，但大多只考慮單獨因素(如預防措施對SARS流行的影響[3]。本研究綜合考慮多個因素(每日新發(fā)病例、干預措施、醫(yī)院感染、流行時間等對SARS流行的作用，采用因子分析方法，將多個自變量組合成復合變量，探索這些綜合因素對SARS流行的影響。
